Fourth seed Jannik Sinner faces fifth seed Andrey Rublev while Taylor Fritz face Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open quarter-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Selected Quarterfinals- 24th January
Jannik Sinner 1/4 | Andrey Rublev 28/10
This has the makings of a minor classic. Italian Jannik Sinner has certainly been the flavour of the month in men’s tennis. He really cemented himself as one of the premier players in the world last season, reaching the Masters 1000 final in Miami before claiming his maiden Masters title in Toronto.
He also reached a first Grand Slam semi-final at the Wimbledon Championships. But it was really his stunning late-season surge that has got everyone’s tongues wagging. His straight-sets fourth round win over Karen Khachanov took his record to 25-3 since the resumption of last year’s US Open.
He has bulked up and his groundstrokes and serve seem to have a lot more venom. He also seems to be more physically durable (which was a concern in the early part of his career). But he is yet to drop a set in Melbourne, beating last year’s semi-finalist Karen Khachanov with his B-game.
Sinner showed resilience against Khachanov, saving a slew of break-points throughout the match. He is fast developing the type of big-match temperament necessary for a would-be Grand Slam champion.
Andrey Rublev is making me look like a bit of a fool this year. A perennial underachiever in Slams, I twice backed Rublev to be defeated in week one. And it looked like he was well on his way to a fourth round exit against ‘Speed Demon’ Alex de Minaur, trailing by two sets to one in front of a rambunctious Aussie crowd.
But the Russian- fighting massive fatigue- reverted to big-time tennis, going for huge winners on virtually every shot after that. He essentially took the racquet out of the Aussie’s hands, playing some of the most fantastic first-strike tennis you will ever see.
Rublev’s gruelling five-set win propelled him into his 10th career Grand Slam quarterfinal (he is yet to progress beyond this stage). He won the season-opening Hong Kong Open and he is now on an eight-match winning streak. I hope he takes some lessons from the de Minaur clash and favours a more aggressive approach this time around.
Verdict: Sinner to win in four at 49/20
Sinner leads the head-to-head 4-2, winning both of their matches last season (at the Miami Open and Erste Bank Open). This should be a fascinating encounter, with Sinner’s strategic all-court play running headfirst into Rublev’s all-out aggression.
Sinner is a different beast to de Minaur. The Aussie undoubtedly had the athleticism to run Rublev ragged. But he simply didn’t have Sinner’s firepower in attack. Sinner has the perfect pairing of attack and defence and I think he can turn a Rublev barrage back against him.
Novak Djokovic 1/10 | Taylor Fritz 58/10
Ominous. That’s exactly what I thought as Serbian World No.1 Novak Djokovic trounced Adrian Mannarino in the fourth round of the Aussie Open. Djokovic dropped just three games in the entire match as he equalled Roger Federer’s Grand Slam quarterfinal tally of 58.
Djokovic looked slightly out-of-sorts in the earlier rounds, lumbering to four-set victories over Prizmic and Popryrin. But that’s really straight out of the Djokovic playbook: look vulnerable in the early rounds only to turn it on in the business portion of the tournament. It almost feels cruel.
The 10-time Aussie Open champion has now won 32 consecutive matches at Melbourne Park and it’s turning into quite a challenge to infuse any suspense into these previews. Still, he will probably be an overwhelming crowd underdog as he squares up against big-serving American Taylor Fritz.
Last year was a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act for Taylor Fritz. He won minor titles in Delray Beach and Atlanta. And also made his second career Grand Slam quarterfinal at the US Open. But he couldn’t quite go all the way in any of the significant tournaments.
I think opponents probably figured out his mega-serving game to some degree. And he almost suffered a mammoth shock in his opener here, coming back in a tense five-setter against Diaz Acosta. He has settled into his groove since then and he was absolutely awesome last time out against crowd darling Stefanis Tsitsipas, using that crosscourt forehand and backhand down-the-line to excellent effect.
He is going to need to serve brilliantly in this match and probably attack the net with regularity. Any way you cut it; this is going to be a massive ask.
Verdict: Djokovic to win in four sets at 9/4
Djokovic absolutely owns Fritz in the head-to-head stakes, with an incredible 8-0 advantage. He most recently demolished the American in straight sets at the US Open. I have to admit, I was impressed with the way he outmaneuvered Tsitsipas and I think he could force a set off the Serb. But that’s the best I can do.
