PREVIEW: Australian Open Men’s Draw – Selected third-round matches

2024 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia 
Selected 3rd Round Matches
20th January

Ben Shelton 38/100 | Adrian Mannarino 2/1

This should be an intriguing all-lefty clash. American firebrand Ben Shelton has enjoyed a meteoric rise over the past 12 months. And it all started with his completely unheralded run to the quarter-finals of this event last year.

He would go on to claim a maiden title in Japan before a magnificent semi-final run at the US Open. He ruffled some feathers with his boisterous celebrations in New York- most notably those of his semi-final conqueror Novak Djokovic.

The Serb has reignited that feud this week by stating that he only repeated Shelton’s telephonic celebration because he felt the American has acted disrespectfully. Pretty tasty considering they are drawn to face each other in the next round.

In any event, Shelton has looked impressive of late, reaching the semi-finals in Auckland before winning his first two matches here. Shelton has a dynamite serve that allows him to dictate the tempo of matches. It will be interesting to see how he fares against an old-fashioned, methodical player like Adrian Mannarino.

French No.1 Adrian Mannarino actually enjoyed a stellar 2023, winning three titles and reaching another final. He won his last event of the season, beating the up-and-coming Jack Draper in the Sofia Open final. He carried that form into 2024, helping France reach the semi-finals of the United Cup.

And he has managed to worm his way into the third round here… barely. Mannarino snuck past former Aussie Open champ Stan Wawrinka in an epic first-round five-setter. He then seemed to be cruising against Jamie Munar before a full-blown implosion saw him once again go to five sets.

This is not the type of start you need if you are hoping to make some real Grand Slam headway (he is yet to go beyond the fourth round of a Slam). Can the veteran overcome understandable fatigue to take down the tearaway Shelton? It’s going to be tough.

Verdict: Shelton to win in four at 26/10

Mannarino actually won their only previous encounter, overcoming the big server in three sets at last year’s Miami Open. I was actually tempted to back a Mannarino upset but he has just spent too much time on court. Mannarino is a smart player who can use Shelton’s power against him.

But it’s hard to dismiss a rampaging Shelton given the relative time the players have spent in these brutal conditions this week. I think Mannarino’s chip-and-slice approach will be awkward for Shelton but the American should be able to ride his power-based game to victory.

Andrey Rublev 42/100 | Seb Korda 18/10

I think I may have misread Andrey Rublev’s resolve. I’m not saying that I all of a sudden think he can win the Aussie Open. I just think that perhaps it was slightly naïve of me to bank on a Eubanks upset in the second round.

Rublev struggled in his first-round match with Seyboth Wild but he was majestic against Eubanks, absorbing some pretty heavy artillery to wear the American down in straight sets. A two-time quarterfinalist here, Rublev enjoyed a really consistent 2023 (Grand Slams aside).

He reached six finals throughout the season, winning a maiden ATP 1000 title in Monte-Carlo before another Masters final run in Shanghai. And his victory at the season-opening Hong Kong Open means that he is currently riding a six-match winning streak.

But why can’t I shake the feeling that he could still be an early casualty in this tournament? Maybe it has something to do with his next opponent: the enigmatic Seb Korda.

You feel that this is going to be an extremely important season for 23-year-old American Seb Korda. The lanky Floridian has struggled to stay fully fit over the past few seasons while the likes of Alcaraz and Sinner have just breezed past him.

But there is no denying his ability. He has a very consistent and aggressive game and he isn’t afraid to mix it up at the net. He upset Daniil Medvedev in this very tournament last year, going on to reach his first Grand Slam quarterfinal.

A wrist injury halted his momentum after that but he still managed to reach another ATP final towards the end of the season. Korda’s route to the third round mirrors that of Rublev. Like Rublev, Korda almost threw away a two-set lead in his opener. He then found his form to take down Halys quite easily.

Can Korda find a way to disrupt the almost robotic baseline onslaught of Rublev?

Verdict: Korda to win 18/10

Rublev leads the head-to-head 2-0. I know it almost looks like I have some anti-Rublev vendetta. I just really think that the versatile Korda has a chance of picking up an upset win here. He is defensively solid and his ability to mix it up at the net could destabilize Rublev across multiple sets. For a bit more value, I’ll be having a small strike Korda to win over five sets.