Damien Kayat shares his thoughts on the ATP Tour's Indian Wells Masters quarter-finals between Cameron Norrie and Diego Schwartzman as well as Hubert Hurkacz and Grigor Dimitrov.
2021 ATP Tour
ATP 1000 Masters
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Gardens, Indian Wells, California
Selected Quarterfinals- 14th October
Cameron Norrie 98/100 | Diego Schwartzman 8/10
I have to admit, I have been pleasantly surprised by Norrie’s performances on the American hardcourts. The Briton has compiled a highly respectable year-to-date record of 44-20. It didn’t surprise me that the counter-puncher would excel during the clay-court section of the tour. He then carried that form over to the grass where he reached the final at Queens. But I thought that his relative lack of power would hurt him as we entered the North-American hardcourt slog. I was wrong. Well, not completely. He won his maiden ATP title in Los Cabos before enduring a drastic slump over the next month. But he bounced back in incredible style last time out, beating the likes of Andrey Rublev and Denis Shapovalov en route to reaching the San Diego Open final. And now he has wormed his way into the quarterfinals of Indian Wells for the first time. He has once again accounted for a big name, beating Bautista Agut in the round of 32. Norrie seems built for these slower hard surfaces.
Diego Schwartzman is the prototypical clay-court player trying to punch above his weight on these harder surfaces. He won his 4th career ATP title earlier this year in Buenos Aires. But he has really been quite mediocre since then. His quarterfinal run at Roland Garros and 4th round run at Flushing Meadows have inflated his season to some extent. Seriously, he has not reached a semi-final since March yet he is still seeded above Norrie? Crazy. He had a decent quarterfinal run in San Diego last time out and is fresh off a win against red-hot Casper Rudd. I just personally feel that Rudd may have been feeling the effects of a marathon season (he also happened to win in San Diego last time out).
Verdict: Norrie to win at 98/100
Cameron Norrie leads the head-to-head with Schwartzman 2-1. He has won their last two encounters, triumphing over the Argentine in five epic sets at last year’s US Open. You can expect a lot of rallies here. Both of these guys are more than comfortable slogging away for minutes from the baseline. But ultimately, I think Norrie will edge this one.
Hubert Hurkacz 57/100 | Grigor Dimitrov 27/20
That’s more like it from 24-year-old Pole Hubert Hurkacz. He was absolutely devastating against Aslan Karatsev, avenging his loss from the San Diego Open. This is a critical week for Hurkacz, who knows that an impressive showing will really bolster his chances of reaching a maiden Nitto ATP Finals berth. His win against Karatsev was doubly important because the Russian is one of his major rivals for that event. Hurkacz picked up his 3rd tour-level title in Metz last month. But he has saved his best tennis for the huge occasions. He won the Miami Masters earlier this year before reaching the semi-finals at Wimbledon. That Miami win means that he actually still stands in line to win a slightly skewed ‘Sunshine Double’ (obviously this year’s Indian Wells was rearranged due to the pandemic).
His opponent this week will be Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov. How did he possibly escape that match against Danil Medvedev? He was staring down a one set, 1-4 deficit to reigning US Open champion Medvedev. But then he managed to turn on the style, winning a mind-boggling eight straight games! This was Dimitrov’s first victory against a top 2 player since 2016. The Bulgarian is a three-time Grand Slam semi-finalist who has battled for consistency throughout his career. 2021 has been little different. He started the year in spectacular fashion, reaching the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open. But since then, his form has been largely indifferent. However, he did show some form last time out at the San Diego Open. I think that Dimitrov’s patented sliced backhand approach is just ideally suited to these courts.
Verdict: Hurkazc to win at 57/100
This will be the first career meeting between Hubert Hurkacz and Grigor Dimitrov. I think the sentimental temptation is to back Dimitrov in the aftermath of that Medvedev saga. But Medvedev- despite his success over the past few years- does have the tendency to absolutely capitulate from time to time. There are no half measures with the Russian. Hurkacz should have enough to win and further cement his place in the season-ending ATP Finals.
