The final for the Women’s draw of the Australian Open gets underway on Saturday 26 January, Damien Kayat previews:
Naomi Osaka 1/1 | Petra Kvitova 15/20
While the men’s draw inexorably leads to yet another showdown between Djokovic and Nadal, the women’s has offered a rollercoaster of thrills and spills that has made for riveting viewing. From the early departures of Muguruza and Kerber to the epic showdown between Simona Halep and Serena Williams, this event has reminded us once again about the wonderful unpredictability of women’s tennis at this moment. Having said that, both of these finalists are previous Grand Slam Champions. Furthermore, both of these players bring with them compelling narratives that are fit to grace any climatic sporting saga.
With all that’s happened over the last six months, it’s easy to forget that Japanese prodigy Osaka is just 21-years-old. She only has two career titles to her name: though they happen to be the US Open and Indian Wells crowns. The infamy of that final against Serena could have shattered other players. But Osaka seems to have taken it in her stride and she seems remarkably comfortable in the role of Serena’s potential successor as if last year’s final at Flushing Meadows was just a truly hysterical passing of the baton. Osaka hasn’t had it all her own way thus far, needing three pulsating three-set matches to reach the final. She rallied well against Pliskova in the last round, having surrendered a lead.
We all know that Osaka is a huge server with tremendous forehand power. What surprised me in the Kvitova match was just how devastating her backhand side was. She was particularly ruthless whenever the statuesque Czech had to resort to her second serve. One thing is for sure, Osaka should be adequately prepared for the pressure-cooker situation. However, there are some fears that the extreme heat in Melbourne may prove a factor: let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. The closing of the roof would likely prove detrimental to her and greatly favour her opponent: Petra Kvitova.
Looking to avenge the elimination of compatriot Karolina Pliskova, Petra Kvitova has been in devastating form in this event. She is yet to drop a set in a performance that is eerily similar to that of Rafa Nadal’s- and they also happen to both be lefties. To be fair, her draw has been rather favourable. Going back to my earlier point, the match against Collins was very much in the balance until the roof was closed due to the scorching heat. The indoor conditions certainly helped Kvitova, who trains in the Czech Republic where practically all courts are indoor. Osaka’s two greatest triumphs- at Indian Wells and Flushing Meadows- are iconic outdoor hardcourt venues. So that’s certainly a factor to keep in mind.
But one can’t help but admire the resilience of Kvitova, who came back from a potentially career-threatening stabbing in December 2016. She’s actually won six titles over the course of the last year on all surfaces. Perhaps what was most impressive last season was her clay-court form, which included an unforeseen Madrid title. The two-time Wimbledon Champion seems to have actually returned from injury a more fully rounded player. She has some Melbourne form, having reached the semi-finals way back in 2012. So the Kvitova case seems equally compelling to that of Osaka, more so when you take the Sydney title into account.
Verdict: Kvitova to win in three sets at 31/10
Amazingly enough, this will be the first time that these two have met. To add additional spice to proceedings, the winner of this match will also go on to claim the World Number One spot. So what to think? I looked into Osaka’s stats against another high profile lefty: Angelique Kerber. And it doesn’t make for pretty reading. She trails 4-1 in that head-to-head. The truth is, this match is extremely tough to call. But Osaka’s Kerber form- coupled with the aforementioned roof observation- leads me to believe that Kvitova may just have the edge. But it’s going to be close. Perhaps 31/10 for Kvitova to win in three represents the best possible value here.
