This is building up to be one of the most exciting female Slams in recent memory, with it being almost impossible to pick a winner! Damien Kayat does his best in this comprehensive preview of the Australian Open Women’s draw.
2024 WTA Tour
112th Australian Open
Women’s Preview
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
14th- 28th January
This is building up to be one of the most exciting female Slams in recent memory, with it being almost impossible to pick a winner! Part of that has to do with the fact that it’s almost impossible to pick a favourite.
World No.1 Iga Swiatek ended last year in fantastic fashion and will go into this as the nominal favourite. But the four-time Grand Slam champion has certainly looked vulnerable in Slams of late.
Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka has exactly the sort of powerhouse game that thrives at Melbourne Park. But I think that both Swiatek and Sabalenka will be extremely wary of Rybakina this year.
The Kazakh star just thrashed Sabalenka in the Brisbane final and her huge serve and no-nonsense demeanour carry a noticeable intimidation factor. The 2022 Wimbledon champ enters every event with little fanfare and I think it works to her advantage.
Elsewhere, Coco Gauff will look to add to her US Open title and cement her status as one of the world’s elite players. It’s strange. The women’s game has generally been more prone to wild surprises over the last decade (perhaps due to the prolonged brilliance of the Big Three in men’s tennis).
But I genuinely think that the women’s top eight could be more stable than the men. It’s hard to envisage an Emma Radacanu-Leylah Fernadez final occurring in this age of Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina and Gauff.
SUPER Elena Rybakina 🦸♀️
— wta (@WTA) January 10, 2024
Relentless power followed by an insane angle!#AdelaideTennis pic.twitter.com/uHYU0rDFyC
Past Winners
Unlike the Men’s draw which has been dominated by a certain Serbian over the last five years, there have been four different winners of the Women’s draw since 2019.
- 2023: Aryna Sabalenka bt Elena Rybakina (4-6, 6-3, 6-4)
- 2022: Ashleigh Barty bt Danielle Collins (6-3, 7-6)
- 2021: Naomi Osaka bt Jennifer Brady (6-4, 6-3)
- 2020: Sofia Kenin bt Garbine Muguruza (4-6, 6-2, 6-2)
- 2019: Naomi Osaka bt Petra Kvitova (7-6, 5-7, 6-4)
First Quarter
Seeded Quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek (1) vs Marketa Vondrousova (7)
Dark Horse: Victoria Azarenka (18)
Unseeded Longshot: Danielle Collins
Wow, Iga Swiatek is going to have to work for her maiden Aussie Open title. The Pole will face former Aussie Open champ Sofia Kenin in the first round. She will then face either Angelique Kerber or Danielle Collins in the second. There is also the prospect of a fourth round clash with in-form Ukrainian Elina Svitoiina.
Swiatek will be emboldened by her barnstorming finish to the 2023 season, where she reclaimed a bit of that unbeatable aura with a brilliant victory at the WTA Finals. She should be able to negotiate this tricky set of fixtures and plot her to way to the final eight.
The other half of the quarter is far more open. Reigning Wimbledon champ Marketa Vondrousova hasn’t gone beyond the fourth round here before and her form still feels a bit too erratic to me. The same can always be said of the ever-mercurial Jelena Ostapenko.
I’m more inclined to lean towards Victoria Azarenka in the bottom half of this quarter. Sure, she enjoyed a pretty pedestrian end to her 2023 campaign. But the two-time Aussie Open is a master on these surfaces, coming from nowhere to reach the semi-finals last season.
She is fresh off an encouraging semi-final run in Brisbane and I think her flat, dynamic hitting could give her the edge in a comparatively weak section of the draw.
2022 finalist Danielle Collins is my longshot pick in this section. She is just one of those unpredictable talents who can beat anyone on her day. She had some decent results towards the end of last year’s North American hardcourt campaign, reaching the quarterfinals in Canada and the semi-finals in San Diego.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek vs Victoria Azarenka
Second Quarter
Seeded Quarterfinal: Elena Rybakina (3) vs Jessica Pegula (5)
Dark Horse: Daria Kasatkina (14)
Unseeded Longshot: Emma Radacanu
This quarter looks like the complete antithesis of that brutal first quarter. 2022 Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina was the beaten finalist here last year and she comes into this match in sparkling form. She thrashed Aryna Sabalenka in the final of the recent Brisbane International and I think she going to destroy a few opponents this year.
Her mammoth serve is the perfect launchpad for her unmistakable brand of first-strike tennis. She was hampered by injuries in the latter portion of last season and I think she is ready to really express herself. I think she should breeze into the quarterfinals here.
Jessica Pegula has fast developed a reputation for being the Andrey Rublev of women’s tennis, picking up plenty of big titles but consistently failing on the Grand Slam stage (she is yet to go beyond the quarterfinal stage of a Slam).
However, the consistent baseliner has reached the last eight in each of the last three editions of this event. And she couldn’t have really hoped for a more inviting first week of action than this. Qinwen Zheng is the top-rated player in her half of the draw and I think Pegula is also going to cruise into the quarterfinals.
Daria Kasatkina is probably the best candidate for an upset run in this quarter (even though she will likely face Svitolina in the fourth round). She has some real Grand Slam pedigree, reaching the final four in Paris in 2022.
And then you have the quagmire that is Emma Radacanu. The 2021 US Open champion has been dreadful these past two years, battling poor form and injury in equal measure. But she does appear to be playing injury-free at the moment and she is in the very inviting bottom half of this draw. She could sneak her way into the 2nd week this year.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Elena Rybakina (3) vs Jessica Pegula (5)
Third Quarter
Seeded Quarterfinal: Coco Gauff (4) vs Maria Sakkari (8)
Dark Horse: Elise Mertens (25)
Unseeded Longshot: Naomi Osaka
It says something about the strength in depth in the women’s game that Coco Gauff is only seeded fourth this week. The 19-year-old American enjoyed an exceptional second half to her 2023 campaign, negotiating a raft of coaching changes and finally realizing her mammoth potential.
She has gone 29-4 since the start of the Citi Open, winning her maiden Grand Slam title in New York in the process. She has sorted out that forehand wing and she is coming into this following a brilliant title defence in Auckland.
She has an extremely comfortable draw and she is going to absolutely sail into the quarters this year. Caroline Garcia could give her some problems in the fourth round but I still think the American will easily progress.
Maria Sakkari won her maiden WTA 1000 title in Guadalajara last year and she will be desperate to put an end to her dreadful recent form in Slams. She was eliminated in the first round in each of her last three Slams and she hasn’t gone beyond the fourth round in any of her last eight Majors.
But she couldn’t have really have asked for a much kinder draw than this. Beatriz Haddad Maia was in pretty poor form towards the end of last year and she will be seeded to play Sakkari in the final 16. I think she should cruise to the 4th round and will likely play Gauff in the quarters.
Elise Mertens could be a dangerous lurker in this quarter. A semi-finalist here back in 2018, the Belgian reached the fourth round here from 2020-2022. She understands the speed of these courts and uses her brilliant athleticism to chase down lost causes. She also hits the ball pretty flat and is able to penetrate through the court.
She is currently playing well in the Hobart International and her record here makes her a decent outside bet. Elsewhere, two-time former champ Naomi Osaka will obviously attract a bit of media attention this week. Who knows, maybe she can find something this year.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Coco Gauff vs Maria Sakkari
Fourth Quarter
Seeded Quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs Ons Jabeur (6)
Dark Horse: Barbora Krejcikova (9)
Unseeded Longshot: Paula Badosa
Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka is fresh off an incredible breakthrough campaign. She won this championship in exceptional style, coming from a set down against Rybakina in the final to put a slew of Grand Slam disappointments behind her. She played brilliantly throughout the calendar Grand Slam year, reaching the semi-finals in Paris and London before a run to the final in New York.
She will feel slightly deflated after being thrashed by Rybakina in the Brisbane final. But she has received an absolute beaut of a draw and she should have absolutely no problems reaching the quarters here.
The other half of this draw is somewhat more intriguing. Ons Jabeur has been a consistent threat in Slams in recent years, suffering a heartbreaking loss to Vondrousova in last year’s Wimbledon final. But she hasn’t gone beyond the 3rd round here since 2020. I think her use of variety and off-speed shots isn’t ideally suited to these brisk surfaces.
Players who hit the ball flatter tend to thrive here and I don’t see Jabeur mounting too much of a threat this year. I really like the look of 2022 quarterfinalist Barbora Krejcikova. The Czech star is powerful off both wings and she is coming off an extremely encouraging 2023 campaign. She won her maiden WTA 1000 title in Dubai last season and she managed to reach four singles finals throughout the year. She has an extremely alluring draw leading up to a possible Jabeur encounter.
Paula Badosa is certainly a bit of an enigma going into this year’s championships. Injuries and poor form have seen Badosa plummet outside the top 50 in the world rankings. But the former World No.2 is a former Indian Wells champ who can play solid hardcourt tennis on her best day. She reached the 4th round here when she last appeared in 2022 and I think she can pull off a surprise or two.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova
Road to the Final
Now comes the almost impossible part of this preview. I’ll attempt to navigate my way though the quarters and semis in a bid to pick a winner!
Quarterfinal Predictions
Iga Swiatek to beat Victoria Azarenka
Elena Rybakina to beat Jessic Pegula
Coco Gauff to beat Maria Sakkari
Aryna Sabalenka to beat Barbora Krejcikova
Semi-Final Predictions
Elena Rybakina to beat Iga Swiatek
Aryna Sabalenka to beat Coco Gauff
Final
Elena Rybakina to beat Aryna Sabalenka
