Damien Kayat previews Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Leylah Fernandez and Sloane Stephens vs Elise Mertens in selected Round of 32 Matches of the San Diego Open on the 12th of September 2023.
2022/2023 WTA Tour
WTA 500
San Diego Open
Barnes Tennis Centre, San Diego, USA (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 12th September
Beatriz Haddad Maia 97/100 | Leylah Fernandez 81/100
Brazilian Beatriz Haddad Maia has had a rather unconventional career trajectory. She looked like one of the most promising young players in the world before injury severely interrupted her early 20’s. A doping suspension then threatened to end her career entirely.
But the lefty has bounced back in irrepressible style over the last two seasons. It all started when she won back-to-back grass-court titles on last year’s tour. She then catapulted herself up the world rankings by reaching the final of the Canadian Open.
And she has broken down more barriers for Brazilian tennis this season, reaching the semi-finals at the French Open to become the first Brazilian woman in the Open Era to reach the final four in Paris. She was forced to withdraw during the 4th round of Wimbledon duew to a lower back issue and she hasn’t quite looked the same since.
She was just upset by home favourite Taylor Townsend in the US Open and she will be desperate for a late-season surge that could propel her close to the top ten in the world rankings.
What happened to Emma Radacanu and Leylah Fernandez? The two were supposed to dominate the women’s game after their incredible run to the 2021 US Open final. In any event, Fernandez pushed Ekaterina Alexandrova all the way in their first-round meeting at the US Open, ultimately going down in three sets.
The match meant that Fernandez now possesses a record of 26-23 since that US Open final defeat. Still, there have been some signs of encouragement of late for the canny baseline operator. She reached the final 16 in back-to-back events in Washington and Montreal.
And she came to Flushing Meadows off the back of a quarterfinal run in Cleveland. She is a plucky competitor who will look to extend rallies and manoeuvre her opponent around the court. That is where she could hold a bit of an advantage over the statuesque Brazilian.
Verdict: Fernandez to win in three at 7/2
Fernandez actually holds a 2-1 head-to-head advantage over the Brazilian. This includes a three-set victory during this year’s Canadian Open (where Fernandez competed as a wildcard). I think this will be another arduous battle of the lefties.
But that’s where I think the Canadian has the edge. Haddad Maia has been battling to recapture her full fitness and I think the Canadian could take advantage of that (as she did in Montreal).
Sloane Stephens 21/20 | Elise Mertens 15/20
No one can accuse Sloane Stephens of lacking fight in her first-round defeat to Haddad Maia at the US Open. She fought back from a set down and pushed the Brazilian all the way in the 3rd.
The 2017 US Open champion has managed to keep hold of a top 40 ranking this year after a series of improved performances in the latter part of the season. In the first half of the season, Stephens only won four of eleven hardcourt matches.
This included opening round defeats in five tournaments. But her 13-5 record on clay really gave her season a boost. And she seemed to bring some of that rejuvenated form into the North American hardcourt season, going to the 3rd round in three of her US Open precursors (picking up victories over the likes of Caroline Garcia and Mirra Andreeva in the process).
The former World No.3 will be hoping that a disappointing exit in New York doesn’t derail all her recent good work.
Counterpunching Belgian Elise Mertens came as close as anyone to putting an end to Coco Gauff’s recent blitzkrieg of the women’s game. She led the American by a set in their US Open 3rd round match.
That was until Gauff found her range and relegated Mertens to a bagel in the decider. Still, Mertens will have picked up some real confidence from her New York adventure. She memorably knocked out the ever-popular Danielle Collins in the 2nd round of the US Open (saving two match-points in the process).
Look, it’s pretty obvious that Mertens has been more successful on the doubles tour over the last few years. But she still has the capacity to be competitive against anyone on her day. She reached the semi-finals at this year’s Monterrey Open before a really encouraging 4th round run at Roland Garros.
She is a past master on harder surfaces, twice reaching the US Open quarterfinals and picking up a career best semi-final berth at the 2018 Aussie Open.
Verdict: Mertens to win in three at 7/2
These two share the head-to-head spoils 1-1. Having said that, their last meeting came all the way back in 2018, with the American easing past Mertens in the 4th round of the US Open.
This is an interesting match-up as both players tend to prefer absorbing pressure and redirecting shots. This should make for a cagey encounter and I think the player with the most patience will ultimately prevail. That’s why I think Mertens could be the one to emerge victorious here. Stephens may be frustrated into forcing the issue and could start to spray errors.
