Damien Kayat previews Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jelena Ostapenko and Veronika Kudermetova vs Sofa Kenin in selected Round of 32 matches of the San Diego Open on the 11th of September 2023.
2022/2023 WTA Tour
WTA 500
San Diego Open
Barnes Tennis Centre, San Digo, USA (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 11th September
Ekaterina Alexandrova 1/1 | Jelena Ostapenko 79/100
This promises to be an intriguing battle between two unpredictable gung-ho baseliners. Russian Ekaterina Alexandrova has risen back to 19th in the world rankings after a series of improved results.
The hard-hitting Alexandrova reached her 2nd career WTA 1000 quarterfinal in Miami. She would then go on to defend her Rosmalen title prior to a career best Grand Slam 4th round finish at Wimbledon.
She took a bit of a hiatus after that but she managed to run into some form on the eve of the US Open, reaching the final in Cleveland to underscore her hardcourt pedigree.
She lost to an inspired Vondrousova in New York but you certainly get the sense that the Russian is riding a bit of a wave at present. She hits the ball flat and she tends to get plenty of value for her shots on these surfaces.
Jelena Ostapenko is fresh off another brilliant Grand Slam run that has helped propel her to 16th in current world rankings. The mercurial Latvian reached her 2nd Grand Slam quarterfinal of the season in New York, matching her Roalnd Garros showing before being unceremoniously thrashed by eventual champ Coco Gauff.
In any event, it was the first time in Ostapenko’s career that she reached the final eight in New York. The Latvian improved her head-to-head dominance over Iga Swiatek to 4-0, comfortably seeing off the Pole in their round of 16 clash.
This has actually been a surprisingly consistent season for the oft-erratic Ostapenko. In Rome she reached her first clay-court semi-final since winning the French Open. She also picked up a title in Birmingham prior to that quarterfinal run at SW19.
This kind of consistency has largely eluded Ostapenko in a career of extreme ups and downs. She will be looking for a strong post-Slam season to potentially secure a WTA Finals berth.
Verdict: Alexandrova to win in straight-sets at 2/1
The Russian actually owns a 4-1 head-to-head advantage over the Latvian. In fact, she has won both of their previous outdoor hardcourt meetings. And I think that trend could continue here. Alexandrova is in pretty good form and has the head-to-head superiority. Also, Ostapenko went deeper in New York and may still be coming down off that considerable high.
Veronika Kudermetova 7/10 | Sofa Kenin 11/10
Strong-serving Russian Veronika Kudermetova is currently experiencing a real dip in form. She has been a bastion of consistency over the last two years, reaching finals on all three surfaces.
And she really started this season in encouraging fashion, reaching the semi-finals in the Adelaide 2 event before being forced to withdraw. She would then impress hugely on clay, reaching back-to-back WTA 1000 semi-final in Madrid and Rome. That was pretty amazing for a big-server who tends to thrive in faster conditions.
She reached the final of the Roslamen event and she looked primed for a really successful North American hardcourt excursion. But the Russian has been 1-3 on the North-American hardcourts, going out to unfancied American Bernarda Pera in a first-round US Open upset. She will be desperate to rediscover some form as the season unwinds.
Gutsy American Sofia Kenin is really having to grind her way back into WTA relevance. It was only three years ago that the American had the tennis world at her feet, winning her maiden Grand Slam final in Melbourne and making it to the final at Roland Garros.
She struggled to maintain that level of consistency in 2021 before injury railroaded her 2022 campaign. Kenin was forced to withdrawal from many key events last year and she subsequently ended the season ranked 235 in the world. But she has clawed herself back into the top 100 after a few decent recent finishes.
She surprised Coco Gauff en route to a 3rd round run at Wimbledon. And she just surrendered a one-set lead against street fighter Daria Kasatkina in the US Open. Those are encouraging signs for a player who has fallen so far behind her undoubted potential. She needs to get a good sequence of games under her belt until we can see the best of her counterpunching style.
Verdict: Kenin to win in three at 4/1
Kudermetova to win in three- These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece. The Russian easily prevailed over Kenin when they met in Qatar earlier this season.
Kenin will feel emboldened by some of her recent improvements and I think the psychological impact of being back in the top 100 will be immense. I think she has a real chance of upsetting an out of sorts Kudermetova.
