Nicolas Jarry 12/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry 13/20
This should be a thrilling clash between two big-hitting South Americans. Nicolas Jarry has been one of the most improved players on the tour over the past 18 months or so.
He won two minor clay-court titles last year but really started to improve on slicker surfaces, reaching a maiden Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Shanghai. This season he has been really schizophrenic for the Chilean.
He has produced some of the biggest results of his career whilst simultaneously collecting a smorgasbord of first-round exits. He picked up a nice runner-up finish in Argentina and would once again showcase his hardcourt credentials with a quarterfinal run in Miami.
He also produced the most monumental result of his career in Rome, beating the likes of Tsitsipas and Paul to finish runner-up at a Masters 1000 event for the first time in his career.
But he has been dreadful since Rome and comes into this event on a four-match losing streak. In fact, Jarry has been eliminated in the first round in nine events this season. That Ostapenko level of inconsistency makes him really hard to gauge this week.
25-year-old Argentine Tomas Martin Etcheverry reminds me so much of compatriot Juan Martin del Potro. He has a solid, imposing serve and looks to pummel his opponents with an absolutely thunderous forehand.
He rose to prominence last season with an impressive quarterfinal run at the French Open. He has really achieved most of his success on clay this season (though he did start the year with a third-round run at the Aussie Open).
He had a pretty humdrum Golden Swing but he then produced a semifinal run on the Houston clay. He enjoyed another semifinal run in Barcelona and he would finish runner-up at the Lyon Open.
He hasn’t been at his best since a third-round run at the French Open and he still has to convince me that he can expand beyond the sticky stuff.
The Verdict: Etcheverry to win in straight sets 31/20
These two are familiar foes, with Etcheverry leading the head-to-head 4-2 (and 2-2 on the main tour). The Argentine won their last encounter in straight sets at this year’s Monte-Carlo Masters.
Jarry is in a bit of a nosedive of late and I think Etcheverry could take advantage of that. This will be a really bruising encounter with both players looking to dominate on that forehand wing.
I think that Jarry has been a victim of his own success of late, probably playing a bit too much tennis over the last 12 months. Etcherverry’s explosive game could expose him.