We’re in for a absolute treat of a quarter-final at the ATP’s Indian Wells Masters as World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz faces off against Alex Zverev on Thursday. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Quarter-Final: Alcaraz v Zverev – 14 March
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 7/20 | Alex Zverev 43/20
World No.2 Carlos Alcaraz should feel galvanized by the recent surprise exit of Novak Djokovic. If that isn’t motivation enough, he also has a rampaging Jannik Sinner to fend off if he wishes to retain that No.2 ranking.
The defending Indian Wells champion enjoyed an incredible 2023 campaign, winning six of eight finals. He won a second-career Major at Wimbledon and Masters 1000 titles in Indian Wells and Madrid. But he probably felt a bit disappointed with the way that Djokovic ultimately wrestled away control of the number one ranking in the closing stages of the season.
He also picked up a few niggles towards the end of the year and he hasn’t looked quite the same explosive player this campaign. He was comprehensively beaten by Zverev in the Aussie Open quarters and he never reached a final in either of his subsequent South American clay-court appearances.
In fact, he had to withdraw from the Rio Open due to an ankle sprain. He lost his first set to Arnaldi this week but he has looked pretty formidable since then. He easily dispatched of Auger-Aliassime before displaying some truly breathless hitting against Marozsan. Could Alcaraz be back to challenge Sinner’s current ascendancy?
That could be one of the most important wins in Alex Zverev’s recent history. He showed tremendous grit and resilience to end Alex de Minaur’s seven-match winning streak, reaching the quarter-finals of this event for just the second time in his career.
These courts don’t really play into Zverev’s power-based style and the heavy wind added to the difficulty. Zverev even stated that he is arguably the worst wind player on the entire ATP Tour. But he really adapted well to register his 50th career win against a top-ten player.
It looks like he is coming back from the trauma of that inexplicable collapse against Medvedev at the Aussie Open. But this will be an extremely difficult task against an opponent far more suited to these conditions.
Verdict: Alcaraz to win in straight sets at 96/10
Zverev actually leads the head-to-head 5-3, winning their last two encounters. This included a really composed victory at this year’s Aussie Open. But I think Alcaraz’s forehand is starting to look destructive again and we could see a return to form for the Spaniard.
These conditions aren’t too dissimilar to clay and Alcaraz should be able to shorten their head-to-head disparity. I also think his wonderful touch will prove beneficial in potentially blustery conditions.
