We’re into the last 16 of the 2024 edition of the ATP Tour’s Indian Wells Masters. Damien Kayat previews Jannik Sinners’ tie against Ben Shelton and Holger Rune takes on Taylor Fritz.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Selected Ro16 Matches – 13 March
Jannik Sinner 17/100 | Ben Shelton 39/10
This will certainly be the marquee match of the tournament thus far, pitting the world’s hottest player against an undoubted crowd favourite.
Jannik Sinner looks intent on improving on his semi-final run here from last year, picking up comfortable straight-sets wins over Kokkinakis and Struff. He hit 12 forehand winners against Struff and also managed to get 88% of his forehands back in play.
When you combine that with his brilliant serving you get some idea why he looks almost unbeatable at present. That victory over Struff also took him past Adriano Panetta to become the Italian with the most consecutive wins on the ATP Tour (17).
In that time, he helped guide Italy to the Davis Cup, won a maiden Grand Slam title and secured the Rotterdam Open crown. The Italian won his maiden Masters 1000 title in Toronto last year and he is a two-time finalist in the other half of the so-called ‘Sunshine Double’: the Miami Open.
He is serving brilliantly and that forehand is working like a dream… Ben Shelton will be hoping that fanatical home support can potentially elevate his game.
Big-serving lefty Shelton also enjoyed a breakthrough 2023 campaign, reaching the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open and the semi-finals at Flushing Meadows. That run in New York was notable as it showed what he is capable of when galvanized by home support.
He also won his maiden title in Japan and big things are expected of him this season. And he has been so close to delivering on that potential, reaching semi-finals in Dallas and Auckland and lost to an inspired Casper Rudd in three sets in Acapulco. And Shelton hasn’t really looked himself in the Californian desert, needing three sets to overcome Cerundolo and Mensik (improving his 2024 win-loss record to 10-5).
He has also dropped his serve four times and he will need that weapon to work overtime should he wish to dethrone Tennis’ crown prince Sinner.
Verdict: Sinner to win in three at 26/10
This will be their third career meeting and they are currently deadlocked at one win apiece. Shelton won in Shanghai last year and Sinner avenged the defeat in Vienna. I think this will be a tight match.
Shelton will enjoy rambunctious home support and he does have the ability to elevate his game in big matches (just look at his Grand Slam results). But Sinner should ultimately wear him down through his depth of shot and variety.
Holger Rune 89/100 | Taylor Fritz 89/100
Holger Rune is fresh off a pretty impressive straight-sets win over Lorenzo Musetti (Raonic withdrew from their round of 64 encounter). Rune could really do with a solid showing this week.
He has been attracting attention for all the wrong reasons over the last eight months or so, firing and rehiring coaches and developing a reputation for being something of a diva. He is hoping that the decision to rehire Patrick Mouratoglou will reap dividends. The pioneering coach was there when Rune beat five top ten players en route to the 2022 Paris Masters crown.
Rune hasn’t won a title since Munich last year but he did manage to reach two Masters 1000 finals (on the clay-courts of Monte-Carlos and Rome). He should theoretically play well on these slightly slower surfaces.
He has been wildly inconsistent this season and it’s hard to tell which Rune will pitch up from moment to moment. He lost in the Brisbane final to Dimitrov only to be upset by Cazaux at the Aussie Open.
Last week he threw away a one-set lead against Rudd to bow out in the Acapulco semi-finals. His game is nearly there but he has tended to wilt under extreme pressure.
26-year-old American Taylor Fritz has looked really solid in the desert, dispatching Tabilo and Baez with minimal fuss. Fritz has proven to be a bit of an Indian Wells specialist over the last few years, reaching the semi-finals in 2021 prior to beating Nadal in the 2022 final.
He once again reached the quarters last year and a win here would make it four consecutive quarter-final appearances. The courts are slow but his whippy serve has a way of penetrating through the thin air. He had a really encouraging start to the year, reaching the quarter-finals of the Aussie Open before defending his title in Delray Beach.
He suffered a slightly embarrassing loss to Arnaldi in Acapulco but he seems to have rediscovered his mojo in home conditions.
Verdict: Fritz to win in straight sets 2/1
Fritz won their only previous encounter in straight sets at last year’s Miami Open. I think he has the game to do his own version of the ‘Sunshine Double’ over Rune.
Rune has struggled with consistency in recent times and Fritz knows exactly what it takes to prosper at Indian Wells. Also, Fritz will receive huge crowd support while the temperamental Rune will undoubtedly be cast as the villain.
Daniil Medvedev 54/100 | Grigor Dimitrov 14/10
This promises to be an exceptional round-of-16 clash. Daniil Medvedev has openly admitted that these Indian Wells surfaces don’t suit his flat-hitting style at all. That being said, the Russian managed to reach the final here last year before losing to Carlos Alcaraz.
He hadn’t progressed beyond the fourth round here before last year and he hasn’t looked his fluid best in this year’s edition. He comfortably saw off Carballes Baena in his opener before a truly gruelling third-round slugfest with Seb Korda.
He looked uncharacteristically sloppy against Korda, conceding 10 double-faults and winning a paltry 42% of his second-serve points. This is only Medvedev’s second tournament following that heartbreaking defeat to Sinner in the Aussie Open final.
He was soundly beaten by Humbert in the Dubai semi-finals and he will be desperate to accumulate some valuable points leading into the clay-court portion of the season (his weakest section by far).
The resurgence of 32-year-old Grigor Dimitrov has been one of the more uplifting tennis narratives of the last year. The Bulgarian looked sensational towards the end of last season, reaching the semi-finals in Shanghai before a glorious run to the Paris Masters final.
And he has definitely carried that form into 2024, winning the title in Brisbane and compiling a year-to-date record of 15-3. He seems to have rediscovered his enthusiasm for the game and has made some improvements on his serve and return position. He eased past Muller in his opener and was extremely impressive against the tricky Mannarino.
He won 88% of his first-serve points against the unconventional Frenchman. In fact, he managed to win a pretty astonishing 74% of his second-serve points. It was a complete performance that really speaks to his current form.
Dimitrov has decent variety and this is reflected in his recent record on these Indian Wells surfaces (he reached the semi-finals here in 2021 and the quarterfinals in 2022).
Verdict: Dimitrov to win in three 44/10
Medvedev leads the head-to-head 6-3. The Bulgarian won their most recent encounter at last year’s Paris Masters. Crucially, Dimitrov won a prior contest at this venue in 2021.
As I noted earlier, Dimitrov can mix it up on these slower surfaces, alternating between heavy topspin and flatter groundstrokes. He also has an excellent sliced backhand that can exploit these conditions.
