We preview the first men’s and women’s semi-finals at the 2018 Australian Open.
Men’s SF 1
Kyle Edmund 43/20 | Marin Cilic 7/20
This would certainly not have been my pick for the top half of the men’s draw. Grigor Dimitrov has been in scintillating form while the omnipresent Rafa Nadal was looking ominous in the early stages. While Rafa was forced to retire through injury, it must be noted that Cilic was going toe to toe with the World Number 1. Cilic was absolutely murdering those forehands, realizing that the only way to defeat Nadal was to seize the initiative. It was something of a reversal of fortune for Cilic, whose own Wimbledon dreams were curtailed last year by blisters. Cilc has overcome the likes of Carreno Busta and Ryan Harrison in what has been an impressive campaign thus far.
Kyle Edmund’s sensational victory over Grigor Dimitrov made him only the fourth Brit to reach the Aussie Open semi-finals in the post 1968 Open Era. Edmund has had an exhaustive tournament, already being brought to the five set mark by both Basilashvili and Kevin Anderson- not to mention that four set quarter-final win over Dimitrov. When it comes to these sensational runs by seemingly unheralded actors, one wonders whether the physical stress of the Grand Slam format will catch up to the player. Former US Open Champion and Wimbledon finalist Marin Cilic has both added experience and less time on court.
One thing I will say is that Cilic has many similarities to Dimitrov. In that sense, Edmund may feel confident. Cilic won their only encounter in straight sets at Shanghai last year. So all of the raw data seems to support a Cilic victory. While 43/20 looks quite tempting from Edmund’s perspective, Cilic was super clinical against Nadal. I think that 7/20 for Cilic may not seem too appealing, but it’s as close to a sure thing as you could get at this year’s temperamental Aussie Open.
Women’s SF 1
Caroline Wozniacki 4/10 | Elise Mertens 7/4
This is really a contrast in two career trajectories. In Wozniacki you have a former World Number 1 with aspirations of a maiden Grand Slam. This is the first time she has reached the Aussie Open semi-finals since 2011, and one wonders if she will ever get a better chance to win a slam: old nemesis Serena will no doubt return. Elise Mertens is only appearing in her fifth Grand Slam, and she had never been beyond the third round before this. She is in red hot form and became the first Belgian since Kim Clisters in 2012 to reach the Aussie Open semi-finals.
Wozniacki has been involved in some wars this year, overcoming a spirted Suarez Navarro in the last round. She lost the Auckland Final to Juila Goerges and needs to overcome a habit of making deep runs without converting. Elise Mertens in on a 10 match winning streak, having picked up the title in Hobart prior to this event. Her victory over Svitolina in the fourth round took everyone by surprise. She absolutely overpowered Svitolina and has yet to drop a set this entire event. It almost reminds me somewhat of the exploits of Ostapenko at last year’s French Open.
The two have met once before, with Wozniacki winning a tight three set match in Bastad last season. That was on clay and should have little relevance here. I have to go for the younger lady here, especially considering the fact that Mertens is yet to drop a set. 7/4 seems great value for a Belgian victory here
