Our tennis guy previews the 2017 Australian Open Men’s Draw set to take place from Monday 15 January – Sunday 21 January.
It’s that time of the year again, with the attention of the tennis world descending on the red-hot hardcourts of Melbourne Park for the year’s first Grand Slam. After last year’s epic historic nostalgia trip- Federer and Nadal dominating the Grand Slam circuit- it will be fascinating to see if this trend continues with age and injury becoming increasing factors for perhaps the two greatest players the game has ever seen.
Speaking of injuries, perpetual Scottish bundle of joy Andy Murray is set to miss the first half of the season following a dreaded hip surgery. Kei Nishikori also misses out while an injury cloud envelops many of the other contenders: Rafa Nadal’s knee problems persist; Novak Djokovic returns to Grand Slam action following an epic lay-off; Raonic struggles with both wrist and calf strains. So perhaps this could be the opportunity for one of the so-called ‘Next Gen’ players to finally break the hegemony of the tennis elite.
Previous Champions
2017: Roger Federer
2016: Novak Djokovic
2015: Novak Djokovic
2014: Stan Wawrinka
2013: Novak Djokovic
The Top Seeds
Rafael Nadal
Roger Federer
Grigor Dimitrov
Alex Zverev
Dominic Thiem
Marin Cilic
David Goffin
Jack Sock
The Joker in the Pack- Novak Djokovic at 6/1
I’m sure that most will agree that the return of Djokovic to Grand Slam action can only be good for the game of tennis. While Federer and Nadal’s on-court rivalry is perhaps the most iconic in sport, Novak’s off-court frivolity and sense of boyish whimsy gives the men’s game a much needed slice of perspective. However, Djokovic hasn’t played a Grand Slam match since Berdych beat him in last year’s Wimbledon quarterfinals. Going for a record 7th Aussie Open, Djokovic is seeded 14th and has received a beast of a draw.
Located in the bottom half of the draw, Novak will play Donald Young in a tough 1st round match. He could then play Gael Monfils in the 2nd round. Ahead of that lies a potential 4th round encounter with Alex Zverev and quarter-final tie against Dominic Thiem- Novak did manage to thrash Thiem in this year’s Kooyong Classic however. And then there’s the simple prospect of potentially facing defending champion Federer in the semis. At 6/1, Djokovic looks to be a brave bet to me.
The Favourites- Roger Federer at 15/8 and Rafa Nadal at 9/2
Roger Federer is quite amazingly the bookies favourite this year at 15/8. Turn the clock back a year and many were dismissing the Swiss’ chances of ever winning another Grand Slam. Winning seven titles including two Grand Slams in 2017, Federer has started the year in fine style, winning the Hopman Cup alongside Belinda Bencic- it was the first time that Switzerland have win the title in seventeen years. What’s perhaps of more significance is the fact that Federer beat Germany’s Alex Zverev en route to claiming the Cup: Zverev is the other top seeded player in the bottom half of the draw. Having said that, Federer does have some potentially tricky encounters prior to that possible semi-final.
Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro have been thorns in his side on occasion, while David Goffin memorably beat him in the Tour Finals last year. Those make for some possibly epic encounters for the Swiss in his quarter. Having said that, Federer exorcised Del Potro demons in Basel and has turned the tide against Berdych of late. Will Goffin have enough to outlast Federer over five sets? Federer will be buoyed by Rafa’s injury concerns and the fact that Murray is absent. Furthermore, Djokovic has received a horror draw.
Rafa and his coaching staff- headed by Carolos Moya- have tried to downplay his knee issues- but one suspects that not all is well in for a set of knees that take unknown punishment. Nadal is in the top half of the draw and will play Dimitrov in the semis if all goes to seed. If you remember, he narrowly overcame Dimitorv in an absolutely epic five-set thriller in last year’s semi-final. Nadal has the likes of Cilic, Isner and Carreno-Busta in his draw. He would have to withstand a varied test of his consummate skills were he to reach a semi-final against a man I strongly fancy this year: Grigor Dimitrov.
The Next Gen Contenders- Grigor Dimitrov at 11/1 and Alex Zverev at 16/1
If I had to choose between Dimitrov and Zverev as the likeliest winner this year, I would have to go for the Bulgarian. While Zverev’s won two Masters 1000 titles last year- he was the first man outside of the ‘big four’ to win two Masters 1000 titles in a year since David Nalbandian did in 2007- it is the Bulgarian who appears to be growing into a potential Slam winner. Zverev has yet to display the physical prowess to compete in a five-set Grand Slam format- and the temperatures expected these upcoming weeks will exacerbate his physical concerns. ‘Baby Fed’ was tremendous in winning the Cincinnati title before a rousing Tour Finals victory. He loves it in Australia- reaching the semi-finals last year after winning the title in Brisbane. He represents great value at 11/1 considering the injury cloud hanging over Nadal. That being said, he would have to potentially overcome the tempestuous Kyrgios in the 4th round in front of what would be rambunctious home support.
The Outside Contenders
The Wildcard- Nick Kyrgios at 16/1
While I still believe that Dimitrov has the goods to overcome the tempestuous Aussie in the 4th round, Kyrgios is a player that simply cannot be dismissed. If he were to defeat Dimitrov, I would fancy him to potentially overcome Thiem and be a threat to Federer should he remain in the draw. While he never had that major breakthrough last season, the mercurial Kyrgios certainly made great strides that suggested a possible breakthrough. He was brilliant in the ‘Sunshine Double’, beating Novak at Indian Wells before narrowly losing an epic semi-final to Roger Federer at Miami. He also beat Nadal in Cincinatti and won the title in Brisbane this year, overcoming Ryan Harrison in the final. If he is able to overcome the personal demons that seem to broadly affect Aussie players, Kyrgios could be a major threat.
To Russia with Love- Andery Rublev at 200/1
This is a more speculative bet, but it does point to the possible resurgence of Russian male tennis. Not since Safin won the Aussie Open here has there been a Russian Grand Slam finalist. But a young brigade that includes the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Karen Kachenov appear ready to challenge that trend. Andrey Rublev is certainly the closest. He is the youngest man in the world’s top fifty and recently reached the Qatar Open Final. Seeded 30 this year, Rublev reached the inaugural ATP Next Gen Tournament final last year, losing to Hyeon Chung. He has worked hard with Coach Fernando Vicente in Barcelona on bulking up on his physique and could have a breakthrough year ahead. He does, however, need to overcome the indefatigable David Ferrer in the first round.
Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.net
