Our tennis writer previews the most enticing third round matches at the 2018 Australian Open.
After the withdrawals of Murray and Nishikori, the early round upsets thus far have only been exacerbated. Former champion Stan Wawrinka slumped to a fairly humiliating defeat while the likes of Goffin and Raonic have also made an early exit.
Does this mean that the Grand Slam omnipotence of Nadal and Federer is more likely to continue, or is there a player emerging that has the ammunition to break a seemingly relentless tide?
Novak Djokovic 1/10 | Albert Ramos Vinolas 5/1
Six-time champion Novak Djokovic has certainly showed some signs of expected rustiness en route to the third round. After a procession against Donald Young, Djokovic had the unenviable task of facing Monfils in the second. While he did extend his career head-to-head record against Monfils to 15-0, he had to battle in four sets.
Ramos Vinolas has yet to drop a set, but has a 0-4 career record against the great Serb. Djokovic easily dispatched of Vinolas in Washington last year, winning 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. 1/10 probably represents better value for Djokovic then if he were in his pomp of two years ago, and I can’t see this going any other way.
Dominic Thiem 3/10 | Adrian Mannarino 22/10
Dominic Thiem will clearly be more of a threat on the clay surfaces he enjoys, and he did have a five-set thriller over a qualifier prior to this match. Having said all that, Thiem has a 6-0 career record over the crafty Frenchman Mannarino. Beyond that, Thiem defeated Mannarino three times on hardcourts last season without dropping a single set.
Mannarino reached the quarter-finals in Sydney, eventually losing to Fabio Fognini. His old fashioned game, which hinges largely on the opponent being frustrated to the point of error, could prove useful against a player fresh off an energy sapping second round victory. While Thiem is clearly the favourite, I just have a sneaky suspicion that Mannarino’s retrograde style could prove troublesome to Thiem in the energy sapping heat in Melbourne. And 3/10 for Thiem clearly isn’t the most attractive proposition.
Tomas Berdych 11/10 | Juan Martin Del Potro 7/10
This is shaping up to be a titanic battle, with two of the guys who perennially challenge the might of the ‘Big Four’. The Argentine leads Berdych 5-4 in head-to-head meetings, with the pair sharing two wins apiece on the harder courts. Del Potro won comfortably the last time they met in Cincinnati last year. Berdych’s career has been in a somewhat downward trajectory while Del Potro has experienced a surge of late, reaching the final in Basel last year before a run to the semi-finals of the US Open.
Having said that, Del Potro had to overcome pain to get through the efforts of Karen Khachanov in the second round. However, 7/10 still seems more than reasonable for Del Potro, especially considering the slump in Berdych’s career of late.
Alex Zverev 5/10 | Hyeong Chung 31/20
Hyeong Chung had a real breakthrough season last year, culminating in his victory at the inaugural NextGen Finals in Milan. Ironically enough, his opponent Zverev opted not to play in that event in preparation for the ATP Finals- where he failed to get beyond the group stage. Chung actually has a 1-0 record over Zverev, although that victory came on clay in 2016, well before Zverev’s meteoric rise to stardom last year.
Those wins in Washington and Canada still belie the fact that Zverev is yet to go beyond the fourth round of a major. Weighing up all those variables, I don’t really see the value in Zverev at 5/10. Chung may be worth a tilt at 31/20.
Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.net
