Damien Kayat previews two selected quarter-final match-ups from the men’s draw of the French Open.
Rafael Nadal 1/100 | Diego Schwartzman 11/1
What more can really be said about Rafa Nadal? The ten-time Roland Garros has solidified his status as the greatest ever clay-court player with victories in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona and Rome. There was a small hiccup in Madrid, but nonetheless the great man has yet to drop a set and has looked nigh on invincible thus far. Nadal’s year clearly started in disappointment with that quarterfinal loss to Cilic in Australia. But the return to clay has re-established him as the World Number One, a title momentarily sideswiped by great rival Roger Federer. It’s really hard to spot flaws in Nadal’s game. It’s arguable that across all sporting codes in history, no single sportsman has dominated one event as completely as Nadal has owned Roland Garros.
The year started in extremely promising fashion for Schwartzman, with the diminutive Argentine pushing Nadal hard in their Round of 16 clash in Melbourne. So it seems as if he would likely join the ranks of Zverev and Thiem in becoming tur challengers to Nadal on clay. That seemed to be exacerbated by a win in Rio. But a poor Sunshine Double was followed by a completely ignominious European clay-court season. I honestly thought that he would crash out early in this event, but victories over Borna Coric and Kevin Anderson have given him the appearance of that formidable clay-courter again. But he faces an almighty challenge just to remain competitive here.
Nadal leads their head-to-head 5-0, with two victories already this season. Three of those wins have been one clay, including a straight sets victory in Madrid this year. In fact, that set that Schwartzman won in Melbourne was the only set that the Argentine has won in their rivalry.
That leads me to believe that 29/10 for Nadal to win in four sets could be decent value this week. Nadal has shown some vulnerability on clay this year to the likes of Thiem and Zverev, and Schwartzman has looked tremendous thus far this week. It’s just the only value I can possibly see in this match.
Marin Cilic 27/20 | Juan Martin Del Potro 11/20
Two former US Open Champions meet in what will no doubt be a massive quarterfinal this week. Marin Cilic is still ruing the fact that the roofs were closed in Melbourne, which will no doubt have assisted Swiss maestro Roger Federer in creating indoor conditions. Cilic has been in indifferent form since that loss, though that semi-final run in Rome- where he lost to Alex Zverev- will have no doubt giving him some added confidence going into the all too familiar climes of a Grand Slam. Cilic did just come through an epic five set match with Fabio Fognini, which will mean that he will have spent appreciably more time on set than opponent Juan Martin Del Potro.
Del Potro’s comeback over the last eight or nine months has been nothing short of sensational. The run to the semi-finals in Flushing Meadows last year was just the beginning of a remarkable return to the upper echelons of the male tennis world. He has already won titles in Mexico and Indian Wells this year, while a run to the semi-final in Miami really made his ‘Sunshine Double’ another career highpoint. He dropped a set against Mahut in his opening match here but has since been imperious, including a formidable straight sets victory over Miami champion John Isner. And he will feel extremely confident going up against an opponent that he has seriously dominated.
The Argentine leads the Croatian 10-2 in their head-to-head statistics. In fact, Del Potro has won their last seven encounters and holds a 4-0 record on clay. That includes a 2011 French Open victory for the Argentine. But the stats are slightly misleading in the sense that they have only met twice in the last two years. But clearly Del Potro, coming off a comfortable win over Isner, will be the favourite against a man fresh off a five set monster.
But there’s something inside of me that says that Cilic is not going to give this up without a real fight, especially after those defeats in Melbourne and last year’s Wimbledon final. Both players have had issues with injury and this may prove to be a real war of attrition. Del Potro to win in five at 4/1 could offer some real value.
Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.net
