Damien Kayat takes a look at the semi-finals of the women’s draw of the 2018 French Open.
Simona Halep 19/20 | Garbine Muguruza 8/10
Two players with differing muscle memories from this event clash in what is set up to be an absolute belter of a semi-final. 2016 Champion Muguruza perhaps surprised even herself with how easily she dismantled Maria Sharapova yesterday. She has improved her career win-loss record at Roland Garros to 24-4 and just seems to have flown under the radar here. Her indifferent year really peaked in the desert where a Final defeat in Qatar was coupled with a semi-final loss in Dubai. She won in Monterrey in what ultimately turned out to be a fairly benign European clay-court season. But the two-time Grand Slam Champion is the antithesis of opponent Simona Halep, generally managing to reach her peak in these crucial Grand Slam encounters.
Halep came through a nervy three-set match against Angelique Kerber and has had to come through two three set matches thus far. Perhaps her most impressive performance thus far was that straight sets victory over Elsie Mertens in the fourth Round. This is just traditionally nearing the point of a Grand Slam where Simona Halep tends to freeze. She should have never lost that final to Ostapenko last year and one wonders how her psychological make-up will take the test that Muguruza will offer. The Rome semi-finalist has perhaps benefited from an underwhelming clay-court season and knows that this is not only a place for the French Open final, but also a duel for that World Number One ranking she covets so dearly.
Muguruza leads the head-to-head between the two 3-1, though crucially that one victory came on their one clay-court meeting. Muguruza benefited from a walkover in Qatar this year, though she absolutely thrashed her the last time they met in the Cincinnati Final.
I think that Muguruza is the favourite to lift the title this year. Her athleticism and calculated aggression seem perfectly suited to the red clay of Paris. And you have to take into consideration Halep’s myriad traumatic experiences at the sharp end of these events.
Sloane Stephens 5/10 | Madison Keys 14/10
A fairly surprising all-American rematch of last year’s US Open Final sees Madison Keys take on US Open Champion Sloane Stephens. Madison Keys has really been the surprise package of this event, with her guts-and-glory, ultra-aggressive approach paying off thus far. She has had a fairly agreeable draw thus far, with only third Round opponent Naomi Osaka standing out as a pre-tournament contender. Either side of a semi-final run in the Charleston Open, Keys had endured four opening round defeats in events. But it seems as if the big stage brings out the best in the power-hitter. She managed to back up that remarkable run to the semi-finals in Flushing Meadows with a highly creditable quarterfinal dive in Melbourne. It will be interesting to see just how aggressive she is against an opponent also noted for her high octane play.
Sloane Stephens’ journey since winning that title in New York last work has been akin to the work of narrative genius. After that tremendous victory she would endure an eight match losing streak that seemed to come out of nowhere. The American was rightfully written off upon entering the Miami event, which she only went on to win. The rollercoaster ride seems to be on a further upward trajectory this week with a deep run in the Slam that one would assume would suit her the least. She manged to overcome a marathon third Round match with Italian Giorgi only to saunter through matches against two in-form opponents: Anna Kontaveit and Daria Kasatkina.
Stephens leads the head-to-head between the two 2-0, which obviously includes that US Open Final last year. Keys is actually yet to pick up a set against her compatriot and I think that’s the direction I’m leaning.
A straight sets victory for Stephens at 5/4 looks like decent value to me. Keys’ relentless aggression is matched by Stephens, who just has greater depth to her game.
